The world can be cruel and illogical, but if you are losing faith now you haven’t lived long enough. The relative stability of the past 35 years is ending, to be replaced by who knows what. We have enjoyed a long pause from the open warfare and global stalemate that shaped most of the 20th century – between open-market democracies and planned-economy dictatorships.
The open-market side prevailed, of course, and compared to the immediate past it has been a dream come to life. It was a vision fulfilled, a vision in which peoples’ desires for peace and stability were twinned with expectations of prosperity and human progress. The remarkable thing has been that billions of people could share that vision, and did. Now, globalism is dying, and why it is dying is no mystery.
Globalism had two parts: first, it was the belief that events in one country cannot be separated from those in another, and that a government must anticipate the effects of its actions on the rest of the world. Second, globalism preached that free trade minimized conflicts between nations.
There were no clear philosophical principles. Conservative or liberal – the dictum was growth, progress, transformation. Germany was reunited, the nations of Europe united as a single market, with a single currency, and free-trade zones were instituted.
It became easy to believe in the dogma of globalism. People moved more freely from place to place. Businesses found more customers beyond their established markets. Ideas were exchanged openly and new technologies were proposed, tried, adopted, and shared.
Globalism was not confined to industrial and consumer economics. It invigorated academia, science and medicine, finance, communications, entertainment, and virtually any other means of exchange between individuals. Individuals are not strictly necessary – machines and networks can communicate and exchange ideas and assets.
It was difficult not to believe in the immanence of globalism. But, allowing for the truth that for several decades globalism prevailed over all its doubters and detractors, the belief in and confidence about globalism was more real than the power it seemed to impose on a world of 8 billion people.
It’s important to take note of who believed and who did not. The believers included hundreds of millions of people who found that life’s creature comforts had become more attainable. To cite just the most frequent examples, personal entertainment and electronics became more affordable, and then more desirable, and then more essential for nearly everyone. Similar patterns could be seen in fashion, travel, and entertainment. All came within the reach of people who never thought of themselves as wealthy or privileged.
Other believers included those who ascended into managerial and decision-making positions within this global system. Having credentials to prove one’s validity, and then authenticity, and then authority, was valuable. Being in a position of influence, having access or means to set regulations was a signal accomplishment – and often more effective than being elected to office or qualified by action or experience.
Non-believers made their cases against globalism, ineffectually. First were those displaced from well-paying jobs by the establishment of global labor costs. Warnings about the U.S. becoming an economy of service workers found no footing – and the assurances that we were developing a cleaner, safer, more equitable nation and world were encouraging.
But as the globalist prerogatives continued, the assurances became less persuasive, and the costs became more burdensome. Newer and better consumer products became less satisfying when the reality of foreign wage-slaves became undeniable.
More lost their confidence in the global economy as the administrative costs of maintaining global peace and global prosperity continued to rise, as did the cost-of-living – but wages remain mostly flat.
There was also a realization – by increasing numbers of voters in North America and Europe – that the rest of the world did not share the vision of a peaceful and equitable global market. Malign governments manipulate access to markets, flaunt global trade and environmental regulations, undercut other nations’ competitiveness, and export or support unrest to destabilize other countries.
Probably the killing blow to globalism was the recognition that credentialed experts cannot be trusted, and will preserve their own status and security against the costs to the general public. They are the last people to believe in the vision of a free global market. The rest are not buying it any longer.
Globalism had a good life. It fulfilled most of the promises made three-plus decades ago. But it’s defects are proving to be true too. And it’s dying because not enough people believe its promises any longer.